After the South African Elections – Dividing the Spoils or Why COPE will never form a coalition with anyone other than the ANC

Posted: April 16, 2009 in Articles
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cope and anc election predictions predicting the elections in South AfricaWe’ve been hearing from the very day that Cope split, that the ANC is weak and it will lose.. Hell, it’s been the mainstay of the DA campaign. The ANC has split and this means the DA can rule, in the form of coalition government all over the country.

Helen Zille’s uber grandiose plan to power has been played out ad nauseam all over our media, with our perhaps, maybe leader of the opposition, just in case they win enough votes, the Mayor of Cape Town.

What the DA wants you to believe is that the people from COPE will want to join with them to keep the ANC out of power.

It’s a crock.

I have discussed at length the reasons for the COPE breakaway in 3 articles on this site, but there is one reason, that I have not yet canvassed, and that would be, their plan B.

When the Mbeki Xhosa cabal fell to Jacob Zuma, COPE embarked on an ambitious campaign to rule South Africa. It was dear reader, classic realpolitik, for the business of government here, is the business of government all over the world, the business of government is to stay in power.

Did COPE ever have a chance?

south africa elections predicting polls south africa election

Absolutely not.

They knew that.

Only Helen did not.

Which begs the question, why ?

Why indeed. The answer is simple. While the possibility of effectively taking on the ANC was slim, plan B at COPE headquarters, was a sure win.

So, what was plan B?

Simply put, the Xhosa leaders and powers that be, which were not discredited, faced the very real prospect of being excluded from government positions.

They, however still had some support, quite strong actually, in small areas.

So, rather that be diluted in one ANC vote, they did the smart thing.

They split that small vote out, where it would count, on an independent basis.

It works like this:

Cope’s votes will give some seats to the upper echelon of their party. They will be, however small, sufficient to keep a few of the old gang in power. Had they stayed in the ANC, they would have had little or no say.

Now, by flexing their muscle, independently at the polls, they will have a bargaining chip.helen zille predicting South African Elections anc cope

Now what Helen Zill would have you believe is that they will use that leverage with the DA it an astonishingly stupid analysis of the political realities of our country. Helen Zill will not be offering any play in national government. The ANC will have serious muscle in comparison.  

Run around the feet of Silly Zille?


They will leverage them to the ANC, in exchange for permanent posts.

COPE will return.

Its leaders will get what they want.

A second bite at the cherry, for a few of them.

The Coalition government will come back to bite Helen Zille, in the backside.

Just watch, and remember, you read it here first.


COPE and the ANC, can you see the difference, really ?

  1. Leviathan says:

    How misinformed you are. Some 6 weeks back Helen Zille herself warned of the possibility that COPE may form a coalition with the ANC. See: You really don’t have a clue, do you?

  2. JP says:

    And yet, only yesterday she was on the radio, promising that “the ANC has spilt, it is weak, where the ANC splits the DA can win, with coalition governments”

    If you listen today you will still hear that oh so familiar promise, I’m sure. She’ll be making it till the bitter end.

    Typical Helen Zille.

    And if you read the piece yopu refer to, you will see that she says she believes it may form a coalition with the
    ANC, she still has hope to cajole them her way, thats why she challenges Dlandala, but the point of this piece is that its no more than an election gimmick from the DA.

    Not a clue ?

    The DA can win the country, ya think ?

    And I don’t have a clue?

    We’ll see about that, quite soon to.

  3. JP says:

    Secondly, I did not say that COPE would form a coalition government with the ANC. I said they would return. They will come back to the ANC fold.

    Just watch.

    The coalition government thing is a crock from Helen.

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